The 2nd district anomaly | Arkansas Blog

Thursday, November 11, 2010

The 2nd district anomaly

Posted By on Thu, Nov 11, 2010 at 9:04 AM

I mentioned this on the blog previously, but somebody expressed surprise last night when I said that, despite a landslide Republican win in the 2nd Congressional District, the old formula that elected U.S. Rep. Vic Snyder still seemed to have potential application in the 2nd District.

To wit, based on unofficial totals announced the day after the election:

Lt. Gov. — Democrat Shane Broadway defeated statewide Republican winner Mark Darr in the 2nd, 115,030 to 90,093 or 56 to 44 percent. Broadway carried Pulaski (by 26,000 votes) and his home county of Saline (by 4,500 votes) and Conway County among the eight district counties.

Secretary of state — Democrat Pat O'Brien defeated statewide Republican winner Mark Martin in the 2nd,112,517 to 92,631 or 55 to 45 percent. O'Brien carried Conway, Van Buren, Yell and Pulaski County (by almost 30,000 votes).

Land commissioner — Democrat L.J. Bryant defeated statewide Republican winner John Thurston in the 2nd, 101,799 to 99,274, or 50.6 to 49.4. He carried Conway and Pulaski (by 15,800 votes, but it is Thurston's home county).

Tim Griffin's paid campaign man, who posts here, crows that he'll always be able to throw an O ring (for Obama) around any Democratic opponent in 2012. O'Brien got hung with that ring in 2010 by his opponent, repeatedly, because he was Obama's Arkansas campaign manager. Didn't seem to hurt him too much in the 2nd. Griffin beat Democrat Joyce Elliott by roughly 120,000 to 79,000 votes and carried all but Pulaski County, which Elliott won by a margin of fewer than 600 votes. If she'd matched O'Brien's vote in Pulaski and still done every bit as badly as she did in the other seven counties, the race would have been a dead heat.

Ifs and buts and all that. It's just information to consider when somebody starts running the all-is-lost narrative in hopes of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I still like giving Mike Ross Saline County in redistricting. If that's too many votes removed, add Grant to the 2nd. Or why not Jefferson?

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