Economist cautions on tax cut study | Arkansas Blog

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Economist cautions on tax cut study

Posted By on Sun, Feb 20, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Work by a UALR economist, Michael Pakko, was cited by Rep. Ed "Tax Cheat" Garner as he argued that the state over-estimated the revenue loss from his windfall capital gainst tax break for the wealthy.

Now comes Pakko, on his blog, to put a little distance from a definitive position on the impact of the tax break. He said he used Oklahoma numbers as part of a different estimating approach.

Which set of estimates is correct? Neither. There is a great deal of uncertainty associated with forecasting the impact of hypothetical policy changes. The estimates provided in my report should be viewed as an alternative that helps establish a plausible range of likely outcomes. I neither endorse nor oppose HB1002, but provide this analysis in the public interest.

The other great uncertainty — unsubstantiated wishful thinking with no research underpinnings is more like it — is the faith-based belief that giving rich people tax breaks will create jobs.

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