Prediction: Republicans to control Senate | Arkansas Blog

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Prediction: Republicans to control Senate

Posted By on Tue, May 31, 2011 at 6:29 AM

John Brummett rounds up legislators' comments at a recent panel discussion, including Republican Sen. Gilbert Baker's prediction that the GOP will take control of the state Senate in the next election.

If 2010 is a guide — when Republican predictions were right and Democratic ones were bad wrong — this should light a fire under someone.

SOMEHOW, I don't think trends spotted elsewhere in the South are likely to be replicated in Arkansas (though these trends do explain why Republicans are trying to crack down on early voting and otherwise invent tools to depress voter turnout among problematic groups.)

The dynamics in North Carolina that worry Republicans — a booming minority population, an influx of more moderate voters and a changing set of priorities — are on display across other parts of the South as well, notably in Virginia and Florida, where Obama also won in 2008.

This time around, his campaign hopes to make a play for Georgia and Texas, seeing in those states the same sorts of economic and cultural changes as elsewhere in the South. An Obama victory in either would be a long shot, but a win in any of those Southern states would make it difficult for Republicans to capture the presidency.

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