Beebe v. GOP — advantage to Republicans | Arkansas Blog

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Beebe v. GOP — advantage to Republicans

Posted By on Wed, Sep 26, 2012 at 9:12 AM

WHO PREVAILS: Gov. Mike Beebe is leading the Democratic Party effort in Arkansas. Can his popularity overcome that of the out-of-state billionaire Koch brothers, whose lobbying organization is spending huge sums to elect Republicans.
  • WHO PREVAILS: Gov. Mike Beebe is leading the Democratic Party effort in Arkansas. Can his popularity overcome that of the out-of-state billionaire Koch brothers, whose lobbying organization is spending huge sums to elect Republicans.
The latest Talk Business-Hendrix College poll tested 2,200 Arkansas voters on Gov. Mike Beebe's popularity and generic partisan preferences in voting.

The results illustrate why Republican consultants are so smugly confident about their chances in state legislative races.

Mike Beebe, who's leading the battle for Democrats, IS very popular, a 64-19 favorable/unfavorable rating.

But ask voters whether they'd vote Democrat or Republican for state legislative races in November and the result statewide was 49-36 Republican, with the rest undecided.

Broken down by congressional districts, Republicans led in preference in all but the 2nd District (another reminder that Reactionary Rovite Republican Rep. Tim Griffin is out of step with his constituents, repeatedly.)

It is worth saying that legislative elections are not necessarily rote choices for Ds and Rs, or at least that has not been the historic pattern, except in the 3rd District. The individual candidates matter — their style, their message, their money, their support from outside groups. That last factor, thanks to Koch money, trends heavily Republican this year. It is also at least a little misleading to look at broad preferences in the state, or even a congressional district, as determinative of the outcomes in much smaller legislative districts, which are drawn by the controlling party (Democratic) to emphasize demographic and historic election patterns. Take Pulaski County. In some precincts, a Republican couldn't be elected dogcatcher. Out in Chenal Valley, a Democrat is typically just about as well received. Average them together and you get a Democratic preference, though narrow, in the county.

Don't get me wrong. Would I rather have Republican generic numbers? Of course. Particularly with the Kochs bankrolling them in a complementary campaign that has now added trashing of Mike Beebe to the roster of themes. For obvious reasons. See poll. (I presume Republicans will want to disavow this poll since it's the work of that turrible Democratic liberal Jay Barth.)

Tags: , , , , , ,

From the ArkTimes store

Favorite

Comments (3)

Showing 1-3 of 3

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-3 of 3

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

Readers also liked…

  • LR speakers blast state board for double standard

    A series of speakers, beginning with Sen. Joyce Elliott, denounced what they saw as a hidden agenda favoring charter schools at the state Department of Education and asked the state Board of Education for return of local control.
    • May 12, 2016
  • The two cities of Little Rock: East/west, black/white

    The Little Rock City Board illustrated this week a community divided over public schools, another blow to the Little Rock School District and another illustration of the need for ward elections to the board.
    • Mar 23, 2017
  • Saturday's open line

    Got any thoughts? Put them here.
    • May 21, 2016

Most Shared

  • ASU to reap $3.69 million from estate of Jim and Wanda Lee Vaughn

    Arkansas State University announced today plans for spending an expected $3.69 million gift in the final distribution of the estate of Jim and Wanda Lee Vaughn, who died in 2013 and 2015 respectively.
  • Bad health care bill, again

    Wait! Postpone tax reform and everything else for a while longer because the Senate is going to try to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act one more time before September ends and while it can do it with the votes of only 50 senators.
  • Sex on campus

    Look, the Great Campus Rape Crisis was mainly hype all along. What Vice President Joe Biden described as an epidemic of sexual violence sweeping American college campuses in 2011 was vastly overstated.
  • The inadequate legacy of Brown

    LRSD continues to abdicate its responsibility to educate poor black students.

Most Recent Comments

Blogroll

 

© 2017 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation