Beebe v. GOP — advantage to Republicans | Arkansas Blog

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Beebe v. GOP — advantage to Republicans

Posted By on Wed, Sep 26, 2012 at 9:12 AM

WHO PREVAILS: Gov. Mike Beebe is leading the Democratic Party effort in Arkansas. Can his popularity overcome that of the out-of-state billionaire Koch brothers, whose lobbying organization is spending huge sums to elect Republicans.
  • WHO PREVAILS: Gov. Mike Beebe is leading the Democratic Party effort in Arkansas. Can his popularity overcome that of the out-of-state billionaire Koch brothers, whose lobbying organization is spending huge sums to elect Republicans.
The latest Talk Business-Hendrix College poll tested 2,200 Arkansas voters on Gov. Mike Beebe's popularity and generic partisan preferences in voting.

The results illustrate why Republican consultants are so smugly confident about their chances in state legislative races.

Mike Beebe, who's leading the battle for Democrats, IS very popular, a 64-19 favorable/unfavorable rating.

But ask voters whether they'd vote Democrat or Republican for state legislative races in November and the result statewide was 49-36 Republican, with the rest undecided.

Broken down by congressional districts, Republicans led in preference in all but the 2nd District (another reminder that Reactionary Rovite Republican Rep. Tim Griffin is out of step with his constituents, repeatedly.)

It is worth saying that legislative elections are not necessarily rote choices for Ds and Rs, or at least that has not been the historic pattern, except in the 3rd District. The individual candidates matter — their style, their message, their money, their support from outside groups. That last factor, thanks to Koch money, trends heavily Republican this year. It is also at least a little misleading to look at broad preferences in the state, or even a congressional district, as determinative of the outcomes in much smaller legislative districts, which are drawn by the controlling party (Democratic) to emphasize demographic and historic election patterns. Take Pulaski County. In some precincts, a Republican couldn't be elected dogcatcher. Out in Chenal Valley, a Democrat is typically just about as well received. Average them together and you get a Democratic preference, though narrow, in the county.

Don't get me wrong. Would I rather have Republican generic numbers? Of course. Particularly with the Kochs bankrolling them in a complementary campaign that has now added trashing of Mike Beebe to the roster of themes. For obvious reasons. See poll. (I presume Republicans will want to disavow this poll since it's the work of that turrible Democratic liberal Jay Barth.)

Tags: , , , , , ,

From the ArkTimes store

Favorite

Comments (3)

Showing 1-3 of 3

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-3 of 3

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

Readers also liked…

  • Kenneth Starr: A comment from Betsey Wright

    Betsey Wright, former President Bill Clinton's chief of staff when he was Arkansas governor, responds bitterly to a New York Times article today quoting Whitewater Prosecutor Kenneth Starr's warm words about Clinton. She can't forget the lives Starr ruined in Arkansas.
    • May 24, 2016
  • Hospitality, restaurant groups oppose bathroom bill

    Add the restaurant and hospitality association to those opposed to Sen. Linda Collins-Smith's bill to keep transgender people out of public restrooms that match their gender identity.
    • Mar 16, 2017
  • John Goodson and others add lawyers for hearing on forum shopping

    Lawyers facing federal court sanctions for forum shopping a class action insurance case have brought in new legal guns from out of state to fight potential sanctions.
    • May 26, 2016

Most Shared

Most Recent Comments

  • Re: Campus carry rules approved

    • There's not much of a way to "prevent" these sorts of events in our society…

    • on December 17, 2017
  • Re: Campus carry rules approved

    • doigotta Not a surprise that you might identify with bigoted cultural profiling. That superior position…

    • on December 17, 2017
  • Re: Campus carry rules approved

    • baked needs a ladder for some of these posts since it's over his head anyway…

    • on December 17, 2017

Blogroll

 

© 2017 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation