Monday, October 1, 2012

Today, the polls look up for Democrats

Posted By on Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 6:33 AM

538.JPG

I guess I'm superstitious. Good news makes me nervous. Still:

* THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT: National poll shows the electorate closely divided, but in swing states, Barack Obama enjoys leads. Can you say Dixie, and how its double-digit preferences for the white man affect overall numbers? Should this election end with an electoral vote win for Obama, but a popular vote win for Romney (not likely at this moment, but let's dream) might that affect GOP ideology on the electoral college? Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight currently has Obama's chances of winning at 85.1 percent. Of course, there is the matter of the skewed polls. ALL of them, right?

* SHIFT IN THE SENATE: Barack Obama's improvement in the polls happens to coincide with changing fortunes in races for the U.S. Senate. A continuation of a Democratic majority now seems a distinct possibility.

The debate looms large.

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