Look away Dixieland: Gallup's big lead for Romney | Arkansas Blog

Friday, October 19, 2012

Look away Dixieland: Gallup's big lead for Romney

Posted By on Fri, Oct 19, 2012 at 8:35 AM

Even Republican-friendly Larry Sabato, political quotomatic, says the latest Gallup poll with a 7-point Romney lead is an outlier.

Ezra Klein digs into it a little bit. It might be that in the popular vote Romney REALLY IS ahead 7 points among likely voters. That doesn't mean an electoral college win, however. You know it. It's on account of a crazy huge margin in the South, where none dare speak the name of race in evaluating the difference. Unfortunately, the wash-off down the ballot is going to put that crowd in charge, with all the baggage that entails. Writes Klein:

I think it’s fair to say that the election is, for the moment, close.

But not according to Gallup. Their seven-day tracking poll shows Romney up by seven points — yes, seven — with likely voters. But he’s only up by one point with registered voters.

It gets weirder: Dig into the poll, and you’ll find that in the most recent internals they’ve put on their Web site — which track from 10/9-10/15 — Obama is winning the West (+6), the East (+4), and the Midwest (+4). The only region he’s losing is the South. But he’s losing the South, among likely voters, by 22 points. That’s enough, in Gallup’s poll, for him to be behind in the national vote. But it’s hard to see how that puts him behind in the electoral college.

UPDATE: Nate Silver Twitter comment at 10:30 a.m.

National polls published in past 24 hours: Obama +3.2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +1, Obama +0.6, Obama +0.5, TIE, Romney +7.

Tags: , , ,

From the ArkTimes store

Favorite

Comments (21)

Showing 1-21 of 21

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-21 of 21

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

  • Trump talks tough at UN

    Donald Trump talked tough at the UN particularly concerning North Korea
    • Sep 19, 2017
  • Medical marijuana by the numbers

    This accounting of interest so far in the new medical marijuana business in Arkansas from KARK/Fox 16's Jessi Turnure at the close of the initial application period for those seeking permits to grow or sell medical marijuana:
    • Sep 19, 2017
  • Latest Obamacare repeal proposal even worse for women

    The Graham-Cassidy bill to undo the Affordable Care Act will be devastating in Arkansas — an overall reduction in Medicaid spending by billions and  a pathway to gutting of premium protection for people already sick are certain to dramatically reduce access to health coverage. But wait. There's more bad news.
    • Sep 19, 2017
  • More »

Readers also liked…

  • Super Bowl line

    Over to you.
    • Feb 7, 2016
  • Is Arkansas in or out on Kobach voter data effort?

    The Washington Post has published a map that counts Arkansas as among states that will "partially comply" with a sweeping request for voter data by the so-called election integrity commission set up by Donald Trump in an effort to cast doubt on Hillary Clinton's 3 million-vote popular defeat of him in 2016.
    • Jul 2, 2017
  • Auditor Lea caught not telling the truth

    State Auditor Andrea Lea, who began her tenure in statewide office with a degree of competence unseen in some other Republican counterparts (think Treasurer Dennis Milligan particularly), is becoming more deeply mired in a political scandal.
    • Mar 4, 2016

Most Viewed

Most Recent Comments

Blogroll

 

© 2017 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation