The color of purple: Searching for the swing voters in Arkansas | Arkansas Blog

Monday, September 9, 2013

The color of purple: Searching for the swing voters in Arkansas

Posted By on Mon, Sep 9, 2013 at 9:26 AM

AM I BLUE? Not much of Arkansas answers yes. But what about purple? - IMPACT MANAGEMENT
  • Impact Management
  • AM I BLUE? Not much of Arkansas answers yes. But what about purple?

Clint Reed,
a partner at Impact Management, a political consulting firm, and former executive director of the Arkansas Republican Party, has written an article for The City Wire and Talk Business on where the voter bases for Democrats and Republicans lie in Arkansas.

The 14 red counties, which reliably vote Republican, have grown sharply in population — by 143,000 — since 2002. The nine blue counties, reliable Democratic votes, have essentially not grown at all, by only 421. Not good for Democrats, of course. Plus, some once solid-blue  counties have lost population and/or begun trending toward Republican votes.

So the purple counties, which can swing either way, become critical.

As you can see from the map, there are many “purple counties” that were carried by U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor in 2002 and then again by Gov. Mike Beebe in 2006. These counties will be paramount for Democrats to win if they have any chance of retaining the Governor’s office and the U.S. Senate seat.

It doesn't help Democrats that Barack Obama is so unpoopular in Arkansas. But Reed offers a ray of hope.

In the 2010 election cycle, I surveyed thousands of independent voters. I found that only two Democratic candidates for congressional and statewide offices outperformed Republicans among independent voters. Those two candidates were Mike Ross and Mike Beebe. This suggests that a “blue-dog” Democratic candidate might be competitive.

PS: Re independents: Reed says current polling shows both Asa Hutchinson and Tom Cotton leading their respective races by double-digit margins. I don't know if I buy that. But I do think this new polling, reputedly done for an Arkansas issue campaign and provided to Cook's Outlook at Talk Business, shows Pryor with a 47-41 lead over Tom Cotton in the Senate race in a poll in which 42 percent of the respondents described themselves as independent.

Tags: , , , , , ,


Favorite

Comments (6)

Showing 1-6 of 6

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-6 of 6

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

  • One dead, two wounded in early morning shooting

    KARK's Susanne Brunner reports that one person has been killed and two wounded in a shooting shortly after 1 a.m. this morning near Roosevelt Road and Cross Street.
    • Apr 17, 2019
  • Reality bites at Little Rock City Hall; spending must be cut

    A followup to Rebekah Hall's earlier report on Little Rock Mayor Frank Scott Jr.'s announcement that cuts will be necessary in the city budget in part to pay for "priorities," such as his desire to expand the police force, but also to deal with the reality often mentioned here of stagnant to decling city sales tax revenue. Some quick ideas on that:
    • Apr 17, 2019
  • Speaking of hard times in newspapers: Democrat-Gazette's move to digital

    Word continues to filter in of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette's pullback from statewide circulation of a print daily edition of the newspaper — the latest from the Hot Springs area, just 50 or so miles down the road from Little Rock. Subscribers there were told home delivery of a print paper would end in May.
    • Apr 16, 2019
  • More »

Readers also liked…

Most Recent Comments

 

© 2019 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation