University of Arkansas poll: Arkansas leans right | Arkansas Blog

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

University of Arkansas poll: Arkansas leans right

Posted By on Wed, Oct 23, 2013 at 7:01 AM

click to enlarge OK IN ARKANSAS  A Hillary Clinton presidential candidacy enjoys narrow approval in Arkansas.
  • OK IN ARKANSAS A Hillary Clinton presidential candidacy enjoys narrow approval in Arkansas.
The University of Arkansas will release results of its annual polling at 8:30 a.m. today. Details can be found here. (Before 8:30, you'll see last year's results.)

I'm going to have to leave for an appointment right around the time of release. So you might have to check the link yourself before I have a chance to summarize.

QUICK UPDATE:  Arkansas leans Republican and hates the president. Make that strongly disapproves. 

This year the poll includes questions about 2014 political races; the 2016 presidential race and a potential Hillary Clinton candidacy; the government shutdown, and questions on marriage equality and immigration.

UPDATE II: I didn't have a chance to look at this with more than a glance before speaking to several hundred attendees of the Life Quest program at Second Presbyterian Church. But I told them that I'd seen enough to have all the starch taken out of some recent positive developments for Arkansas Democrats. Republicans don't fare so well either. Poltiicians are generally held in low esteem, Gov. Mike Beebe being one exception.

JOB APPROVAL

Gov. Mike Beebe 66%
Sen. John Boozman 30%]
Sen,. Mark Pryor 33%
President Obama 27%

ELECTION TODAY — R or D?

U.S. Senate 32-34
Governor 32-30
U.S. House 32-31
Arkansas legislature 36-33
President 44-39

NOTE: The numbers trend to broaden for Republicans in these choices if limited to very likely voters, with an exception. In the presidential race. With Hillary Clinton vs. a Republican candidate, Clinton would lead 44-42.

ISSUES

Government shutdown: This was the most depressing finding of all — 37-26 respondents put blame on President Obama over Republicans in Congress.

Obamacare: The majority aren't very familiar with it, but most plan to get insurance rather than pay the fine.

Guns: 33 percent want stricter gun laws, 15 percent want less strict,47 percent want things unchanged.

Abortion: 44 percent want more restrictions, 11 percent want less restrictions, 34 percent want no change.

Marriage equality: 46 percent want no legal recognition for same-sex partners, below 50 percent for the first time in eight years of polling. 23 percent would favor legal marriage. Another 21 percent would support civil unions. So 44 percent favor recognition.

Immigration: 59 percent would support citizenship for those who meet criteria such as learning English and paying back taxes. The vote was 52-35 against in-state tuition for Arkansas high school graduates who are in the country illegally.

Party identification: Democrats led Republicans, 30-24. But among the 37 percent identified as independent, they leaned Republican 43-21.

The state of things: A majority, nearly two-thirds, thinks Arkansas is heading in the right direction and a similar percentage thinks, now and in the future, that things are about the same or better.

NONSENSE NOTED: Tom Cotton, who's challenging Mark Pryor, used the release as an occasion to note Arkansas disapproval of President Obama. And he said, based on a National Republican Senatorial Committee poll, that he was a sure winner in Arkansas because the Republican-paid poll showed him with 45-41 lead. He failed to note that the poll was a Republican poll. He also failed to note that the generic UA poll, like several others released recently, show the Democrat, Mark Pryor, with a slight lead among all respondents and 1 point behind among very likely voters, but with a large undecided. Cotton, of course, is one of those despised congresspeople, too.







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