Nate Silver predictions and why they matter to Democrats | Arkansas Blog

Monday, March 24, 2014

Nate Silver predictions and why they matter to Democrats

Posted By on Mon, Mar 24, 2014 at 3:10 PM

As Max noted, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com had some gloomy predictions for Senate Democrats, including Sen. Mark Pryor, projected by Silver to have just a 30 percent shot at holding on to his seat — which was countered by some re-spinning by Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee director Guy Cecil.

Chris Cizzilla at the Washington Post reports on one reason Silver's predictions matter: Democratic funders.  

Know who REALLY listens to what Nate says? Major Democratic donors. They follow his projections extremely closely and, if he says the Senate majority won't be held, they take it as the gospel truth. That, of course, is a major problem for the DSCC and other Democrats focused on keeping control of the Senate — particularly given that major outside conservative groups led by Americans for Prosperity are already spending heavily on ads bashing vulnerable Democratic incumbents. If the major donor community concludes that spending on the Senate isn't a worthy investment, Cecil and his Democratic colleagues know that their chances of holding the majority get very, very slim. Nate's predictions move money in Democratic circles. Cecil knows that. Hence the memo.

In other words, Silver's bearishness on a candidate could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if donors decide it's a lost cause and pull out (though in Pryor's case, he has plenty of cash in hand at this point). I think this general phenomenon helps explain how much time both party's flacks and hacks spend on social media on the tedious topic of which poll to believe months before an election. 

Tags: , , , , , ,

From the ArkTimes store

Favorite

Comments (5)

Showing 1-5 of 5

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-5 of 5

Add a comment

More by David Ramsey

  • Abuse again at Arkansas juvenile lockup

    A guard was fired after choking a child at the Alexander Juvenile Assessment and Treatment Center. It’s the latest in a long history of mistreatment at the facility.
    • May 26, 2017
  • Health care policy FAQ

    What proposed state and federal changes mean for the future of health care policy in Arkansas.
    • May 25, 2017
  • The health of a hospital

    The Medicaid expansion helped Baxter County Regional Medical Center survive and thrive, but a federal repeal bill threatens to imperil it and its patients.
    • May 25, 2017
  • More »

Readers also liked…

Most Shared

  • Lynchings hidden in the history of the Hot Springs Confederate monument

    Hot Springs twice erupted into the kind of violence that has its roots in the issues left unresolved by the Civil War, and both times, it happened right where that monument to Confederate soldiers stands today.
  • Take yourself there: Mavis Staples coming to LR for Central High performance

    Gospel and R&B singer and civil rights activist Mavis Staples, who has been inspiring fans with gospel-inflected freedom songs like "I'll Take You There" and "March Up Freedom's Highway" and the poignant "Oh What a Feeling" will come to Little Rock for the commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the desegregation of Central High.
  • Klan's president

    Everything that Donald Trump does — make that everything that he says — is calculated to thrill his lustiest disciples. But he is discovering that what was brilliant for a politician is a miscalculation for a president, because it deepens the chasm between him and most Americans.
  • On Charlottesville

    Watching the Charlottesville spectacle from halfway across the country, I confess that my first instinct was to raillery. Vanilla ISIS, somebody called this mob of would-be Nazis. A parade of love-deprived nerds marching bravely out of their parents' basements carrying tiki torches from Home Depot.

Most Viewed

Most Recent Comments

  • Re: Eclipse-o-rama underway

    • I hate that Drumpf DID waste money on eclipse glasses, even though he had to…

    • on August 21, 2017
  • Re: Eclipse day. Woodstock?

    • tsal, tRump did look at it briefly without his special x-ray vision glasses.

    • on August 21, 2017
  • Re: Monday's open line: News eclipsed by sun

    • Speaking of fake news, The Orange Idiot is going to read words to the nation…

    • on August 21, 2017

Blogroll

 

© 2017 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation