Handicapping the Pryor-Cotton race | Arkansas Blog

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Handicapping the Pryor-Cotton race

Posted By on Thu, Apr 17, 2014 at 7:20 AM

PRYOR: Facing uphill battle because of Obama's approval ratings, according to fivethirtyeight analysis.
  • PRYOR: Facing uphill battle because of Obama's approval ratings, according to fivethirtyeight analysis.
For hardcore political junkies, I'll recommend this fivethirtyeight.com post from Harry Enten taking a look at Senate races, trying to factor in both polling and presidential approval ratings. My main takeaway is that it's too early to be making predictions! 

Enten focuses on states, such as Arkansas, with a "disparity between what the polls are telling us and the state’s opinion of Democrats." In addition to Arkansas, the polls are close in Kentucky, Georgia, Alaska, Louisiana and North Carolina, despite all of them voting for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in 2012. Enten creates a model that seeks to balance the state of the current polling, which he finds is the more historically predictive measure, with the low approval ratings of the sitting president, which he finds is a secondary, but also important, predictive factor. 

Here's Enten: 

More than six months from the midterm elections, current polling and past precedent are competing for our trust. I analyzed which measure is more indicative come November, and it turns out that polls are a more robust metric even though their numbers are still sparse and there’s still so much time remaining before the election. That’s not to say that a president’s approval rating is useless: It can help refine early polls to make them more accurate. This year, when we factor in both, it doesn’t look promising for Democrats in Alaska, Arkansas, Kentucky or Louisiana.

Basically, Enten's conclusion is that while Sen. Mark Pryor is polling strong of late, he nevertheless faces an uphill battle because, by Enten's estimate, Obama’s approval rating in Arkansas is somewhere between 30 percent and 33 percent .

If you just look at the polls, Enten's model finds that the Pryor-Cotton race is a tossup, but when he used Obama's approval rating in his model, Pryor's chances fall to just 31 percent (Nate Silver's model, which incorporates additional factors, suggested Pryor had a 30 percent chance last month, but that was before the recent spate of good polling for Pryor). 

Tags: ,

From the ArkTimes store


Comments (3)

Showing 1-3 of 3

Add a comment

Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-3 of 3

Add a comment

More by David Ramsey

Readers also liked…

  • Kenneth Starr: A comment from Betsey Wright

    Betsey Wright, former President Bill Clinton's chief of staff when he was Arkansas governor, responds bitterly to a New York Times article today quoting Whitewater Prosecutor Kenneth Starr's warm words about Clinton. She can't forget the lives Starr ruined in Arkansas.
    • May 24, 2016
  • Police identify two women found fatally shot on Chicot Road

    Little Rock police have identified two women found dead of gunshot wounds in an SUV parked next to a vacant trailer in a mobile home park at 11500 Chicot Road.
    • May 16, 2017
  • John Goodson and others add lawyers for hearing on forum shopping

    Lawyers facing federal court sanctions for forum shopping a class action insurance case have brought in new legal guns from out of state to fight potential sanctions.
    • May 26, 2016

Most Shared

Most Viewed

Most Recent Comments

  • Re: The Truth is Out There Open Line

    • "Trump Eyes Eventual Ban of All Multisyllabic Words." Ha, Drumpf wouldn't even know what that…

    • on December 16, 2017
  • Re: Campus carry rules approved

    • Baker, seems to me tsallen is implying that the knuckleheads who passed the new concealed…

    • on December 16, 2017
  • Re: The Truth is Out There Open Line

    • "Trump Eyes Eventual Ban of All Multisyllabic Words."--Andy Borowitz "Trump Bans Government Employees Use of…

    • on December 16, 2017



© 2017 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation