Number crunching: Fight for control of U.S. Senate remains tight | Arkansas Blog

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Number crunching: Fight for control of U.S. Senate remains tight

Posted By on Tue, Apr 22, 2014 at 9:57 AM

click to enlarge STILL IN DANGER: The outlook has improved for Mark Pryor, but not enough to favor him, NYT says. - THE UPSHOT
  • The Upshot
  • STILL IN DANGER: The outlook has improved for Mark Pryor, but not enough to favor him, NYT says.
The Upshot, the New York Times' successor to the departed 538 blog, reports improvement in Democratic chances to retain control of the Senate, in part thanks to positive developments in Arkansas. But not positive enough to make Pryor a favorite in the race.

The numbers crunch here gives Democrats a slim 51 percent chance to retain the Senate.

The Republicans’ chances have been declining in recent weeks, falling from a recent high of 54 percent. This is mostly due to some unfavorable polls in Arkansas and Iowa.

Recent polling has shown incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor with a scant edge in his race against Republican Tom Cotton. That makes the race one of eight deemed "competitive," though a further numbers breakdown gives Cotton an edge, a 54 percent chance, of winning the seat.

The Upshot also rounds up the prognosticators, with two tossups and three leaning Republican in Arkansas among the five being followed. That keeps Pryor among five incumbent Democrats most in danger of losing their seats, the item says.

The Upshot also comes with news that you think might favor a populist Democrat over a Republican candidate with clear sympathies for — and big money from — the plutocrats.

The American middle class, long the most affluent in the world, has lost that distinction.

While the wealthiest Americans are outpacing many of their global peers, a New York Times analysis shows that across the lower- and middle-income tiers, citizens of other advanced countries have received considerably larger raises over the last three decades.

Middle-class incomes in Canada — substantially behind in 2000 — now appear to be higher than in the United States. The poor in much of Europe earn more than poor Americans.

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