Monday, May 12, 2014
Arkansas Elections NBC poll gives Mark Pryor 11-point lead over Tom Cotton in race for U.S. Senate; Hutchinson leads Ross
Posted By Max Brantley on Mon, May 12, 2014 at 7:05 AM
The desperation in the tone of Tom Cotton handlers on social media begins to make sense. Today, from NBC, comes a third poll with a double-
digit lead for U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor in his challenge by Republican Tom Cotton.
The same poll shows good results for Democratic challengers in Georgia and Kentucky as well. But ….. It is also another poll showing Republican Asa Hutchinson with a solid lead over Mike Ross in the race for governor. Hutchinson enjoys the recent advantage of being in the field with heavy TV ad buys to win a primary, while Ross, with a nominal challenger without money, hasn't been as visible.
Earlier polls by Opinion Research of Little Rock and the New York Times have given Pryor a 10-point edge. A number of other polls have shown much smaller gaps, but all with at least a marginal edge for Pryor.
This race isn't over by a long shot. The Kochs, if nothing else, have committed an enormous sum, along with the Club for Growth, to flood Arkansas with ads trashing Pryor.
Do people get it.? Pryor is a mushy centrist (as a huge swath of swing voters are). Tom Cotton is a little odd and extreme to the point of nuttiness (against disaster relief expenditures) in his political views?
NBC addresses the divergent results in Arkansas:
Based on his record on things like guns and abortion and more, Ross has the tools to make a play to independent voters.
The poll in Arkansas was done May 4, before President Obama's visit to Arkansas, a home run for Mark Pryor and almost overwhelmingly positive for a president with extremely low numbers in Arkansas. Most of Cotton's campaign to date has been built on tying Pryor to Obama. If anybody was moved in Arkansas by the presidential visit, it would be in the middle range of voters, not utterly committed to either end of the spectrum.
Recent polling shows Arkansas self-identified "independents" trend strongly conservative. I'd guess Democrats better get comfortable with a strong emergence of the Mike Ross that was able to overcome that tendency to great Republican Jay Dickey for Congress way back when.
In Arkansas, with less than six months until Election Day 2014, incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., leads Republican challenger Tom Cotton by 11 points among registered voters, 51 percent to 40 percent. (That finding is largely in line with other polling from that race since April showing Pryor either leading or tied.)
The same poll shows good results for Democratic challengers in Georgia and Kentucky as well. But ….. It is also another poll showing Republican Asa Hutchinson with a solid lead over Mike Ross in the race for governor. Hutchinson enjoys the recent advantage of being in the field with heavy TV ad buys to win a primary, while Ross, with a nominal challenger without money, hasn't been as visible.
Earlier polls by Opinion Research of Little Rock and the New York Times have given Pryor a 10-point edge. A number of other polls have shown much smaller gaps, but all with at least a marginal edge for Pryor.
This race isn't over by a long shot. The Kochs, if nothing else, have committed an enormous sum, along with the Club for Growth, to flood Arkansas with ads trashing Pryor.
Do people get it.? Pryor is a mushy centrist (as a huge swath of swing voters are). Tom Cotton is a little odd and extreme to the point of nuttiness (against disaster relief expenditures) in his political views?
NBC addresses the divergent results in Arkansas:
While Pryor leads the Senate general election contest in Arkansas, Republican Asa Hutchinson has a seven-point advantage in the state’s gubernatorial contest over Democrat Mike Ross, 49 percent to 42 percent.
The reason why both Pryor and Hutchinson are ahead in their statewide races: Both men are leading among independents – Pryor has a seven-point edge over Cotton here (48 percent to 41 percent), and Hutchinson has a 15-point advantage (52 percent to 37 percent).
"These are competitive states as far as the general is concerned"
In addition, Pryor (with a 50 percent to 35 percent favorable/unfavorable rating) is viewed in a more positive light than Cotton is (38 percent to 39 percent) among voters.
Pryor also is getting the support of 32 percent of voters who disapprove of President Obama’s job in Arkansas.
Based on his record on things like guns and abortion and more, Ross has the tools to make a play to independent voters.
The poll in Arkansas was done May 4, before President Obama's visit to Arkansas, a home run for Mark Pryor and almost overwhelmingly positive for a president with extremely low numbers in Arkansas. Most of Cotton's campaign to date has been built on tying Pryor to Obama. If anybody was moved in Arkansas by the presidential visit, it would be in the middle range of voters, not utterly committed to either end of the spectrum.
Recent polling shows Arkansas self-identified "independents" trend strongly conservative. I'd guess Democrats better get comfortable with a strong emergence of the Mike Ross that was able to overcome that tendency to great Republican Jay Dickey for Congress way back when.
Comments (7)
Showing 1-7 of 7
More by Max Brantley
-
Senate defeats bill to alter alimony law
The Senate failed Thursday to approve Sen. Bob Ballinger's bill that would open the door to reopening all alimony cases and allow a judge to call an end to permanent alimony awards.
- Feb 21, 2019
-
Thursday: The open and the daily news video
The open line and the daily news video with comment on highway taxes, school lunch money, gambling and a number of good deeds.
- Feb 21, 2019
-
Gambling on the Constitution a hot topic at public hearing
The Arkansas Racing Commission, which regulates casino gambling, is holding a public hearing today on rules for expanded casino gambling in the state. Most of the talk is about Pope County.
- Feb 21, 2019
- More »
Readers also liked…
-
Is Arkansas in or out on Kobach voter data effort?
The Washington Post has published a map that counts Arkansas as among states that will "partially comply" with a sweeping request for voter data by the so-called election integrity commission set up by Donald Trump in an effort to cast doubt on Hillary Clinton's 3 million-vote popular defeat of him in 2016.
- Jul 2, 2017
-
Use of solar on the rise in Arkansas
With a pivotal ruling expected any day now from the Public Service Commission, Kyle Massey at Arkansas Business reports on the increase in Arkansans adding solar generation units on their homes and business.
- Apr 13, 2018
-
Rep. Mary Bentley's website now supports gay rights
Somebody has cybersquatted on Republican Rep. Mary Bentley's website, replacing her messaging with a call for equal rights for LGBTQ people.
- Jul 18, 2017
Slideshows
-
Little Rock Mayor Frank Scott Inaugural events
Site Index
News
Cover Story / Arkansas Reporter / The Week That Was / The Observer / Editorial / Max Brantley / Ernest Dumas / Gene Lyons / Jay Barth / Words / Guest Writer / Letters
Entertainment
A&E Feature / To-Do List / In Brief / Movie Reviews / Music Reviews / Theater Reviews / A&E News / Art Notes / Media / Dining Reviews / Dining Guide / Calendar / Gallery Listings
RT @Steve55Simpson: “Jones' family members believe that Keodrae was targeted and they implicated subjects in this shooting that are also su…
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
Flash Flood Watch for Woodruff, Garland, Saline, Pulaski, Lonoke, Prairie, Monroe, Clark, Hot Spring, Jefferson, Ar… https://t.co/JLBSLYMeXC
KARK4News
RT @PostRoz: Judge rules federal prosecutors, including Labor Secretary Acosta, broke law by concealing Jeffrey Epstein plea from victims.…
Arkansas Blog - Max Brantley
Peter Tork of The Monkees dead at 77, report says https://t.co/ZMkeZCGQ7C #ARNews https://t.co/hukBcd7tqa
Fox16 News
A tortoise species feared to be extinct has been found. Where it was discovered after 110 years:… https://t.co/o4PF6bb5ri
KATV News
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
Flash Flood Watch for Woodruff, Garland, Saline, Pulaski, Lonoke, Prairie, Monroe, Clark, Hot Spring, Jefferson, Ar… https://t.co/JLBSLYMeXC
KARK4News
RT @PostRoz: Judge rules federal prosecutors, including Labor Secretary Acosta, broke law by concealing Jeffrey Epstein plea from victims.…
Arkansas Blog - Max Brantley
Peter Tork of The Monkees dead at 77, report says https://t.co/ZMkeZCGQ7C #ARNews https://t.co/hukBcd7tqa
Fox16 News
A tortoise species feared to be extinct has been found. Where it was discovered after 110 years:… https://t.co/o4PF6bb5ri
KATV News
Most Recent Comments
-
Re: UCA brings former Hog coach Lou Holtz to town
Holtz is a favorite of right-wing, religious zealots.
- on February 21, 2019
-
Re: Senate defeats bill to alter alimony law
Any bill with Ballinger's name on it is guaranteed trouble.
- on February 21, 2019
-
Re: Thursday: The open and the daily news video
I'm waiting for all the facts to come about before I pass judgment on Harris,…
- on February 21, 2019
This Week's Cover
Quick Links
Special Publications
RSS
Facebook
Twitter