Democrats take heart from their poll on state constitutional offices | Arkansas Blog

Monday, October 13, 2014

Democrats take heart from their poll on state constitutional offices

Posted By on Mon, Oct 13, 2014 at 11:00 AM

The Arkansas Democratic Party takes heart from recent polling by Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock in the races for down-ballot statewide offices. The sounding of 400 likely voters showed Democrats with leads (within the margin of error) in five of six races, but significant undecided voters in each case.

Looking for good news for Democrats amid a run of mostly negative poll results? Try these on with the obvious caveat that it is the party's own poll. One reasonable takeaway seems to be that John Burkhalter's big ad buy in the race for lieutenant governor has had some impact. But I still can't shake the facts of the carbon-copy votes that elected Mark Darr, Mark Martin and John Thurston over superior candidates in 2010's anti-Obama wave and the enduring strength of the anti-Obama message in 2014. But note that Suffolk University/USA Today polling has shown some similar strength for these candidates.

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Ernest J. Oakleaf, PhD, Zoe D. Oakleaf, PhD.
Opinion Research Associates, Inc.
RE: Survey of Arkansas Likely Voters
DATE: October 13, 2014

Opinion Research Associates, Inc., conducted a survey of 400 Arkansas likely voters,
October 1-5, 2014. The margin of error for the total sample is ±5 percentage points at the
95% level of confidence, meaning that percentages calculated on a sample of 400 cases can
be expected to vary, as a consequence of random variation, by no more than ±5 points from
the true population percentages in 19 out of 20 samples taken. Voters were asked for whom
they would vote in 6 races for constitutional offices in November. All of the major party
candidates’ percentages are within the poll’s margin of error.

In the race for attorney general, Nate Steel, the Democrat, leads Leslie Rutledge, the
Republican, 37% to 36%, with Aaron Cash, the Libertarian, at 3%, and 24% undecided.

In the race for lieutenant governor, John Burkhalter, the Democrat, leads Congressman Tim
Griffin, the Republican, 42% to 39%, with Chris Olson, the Libertarian, at 5%, and 15%
undecided.

In the state treasurer’s race Karen Sealy Garcia, the Democrat, leads Dennis Milligan, the
Republican, 35% to 31%, with Chris Hays, the Libertarian, at 6%, and 29% undecided.

Regina Stewart Hampton, the Democrat, leads Representative Andrea Lee, the Republican,
in the race for state auditor, 31% to 27%, with Brian Leach, the Libertarian, at 6%, and 37%
undecided.

Incumbent secretary of state, Mark Martin, the Republican, leads Democratic challenger,
Susan Inman, 42% to 39%, with Jacob Holloway, the Libertarian, receiving 3%, and 16%
undecided.

In the race for land commissioner, Mark Robertson, the Democrat, leads incumbent Land
Commissioner John Thurston, the Republican, 33% to 32%, with 7% for Elvis Presley, the
Libertarian, and 29% undecided.

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