Another poll with good news for Arkansas Republicans | Arkansas Blog

Sunday, November 2, 2014

Another poll with good news for Arkansas Republicans

Posted By on Sun, Nov 2, 2014 at 7:40 AM

Public Policy Polling last night released a round of Arkansas polling and it shows Republicans leading in everything sampled. Results in low-profile statewide offices produce uniform results in the range of 45-38 Republican over Democrat.

PPP does robo-polling and has Democratic roots, for the record. Here's its analysis.

Among the findings: Tom Cotton over Mark Pryor 49-41 in the race for U.S. Senate and Asa Hutchinson over Mike Ross 51-41 in the race for governor.

The sad news in the polling is what it tells us about the electorate in a state that once reflexively voted Democratic. It's approaching a reflexive majority Republican vote.

There's no better judge than polling in the six statewide offices other than governor. I'd guess no more than a third of Arkansas voters (and I'm being generous) could name the major party candidates for the offices of lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, auditor, treasurer and land commissioner.

The polling is strikingly uniform, however: The Republican candidate in these six races all draw between 44 and 47 percent in the PPP poll. The Democrats cluster between 36 and 40. The highest numbers go to Tim Griffin (46) and Mark Martin (47) who undoubtedly get a small bump from the name recognition value of currently holding public office.

I judge these results as party line voting, just as in 2010 when it propelled Republicans Mark Darr, Martin and John Thurston into office as relative unknowns against strong and even well-known Democratic candidates. That anti-Obama tide shows no sign of ebbing. Obama's departure seems unlikely to alter the new dynamic, (Interestingly poll respondents identified 39-29 as Democrats over Republicans. I think pretty clearly the reflexive Republican vote is higher even if some aren't ready to adopt the label.)

The highest polling Democrat in these offices is Nate Steel, trailing the unqualified Leslie Rutledge 44-40. He has some ad money. Undecided numbers in each race offer some hope for Steel and other Democrats, particularly self-financed lieutenant governor candidate John Burkhalter, trailing Griffin 46-38, but indications are that the undecided and independent voters in Arkansas lean Republican,

The minimum wage increase enjoys huge support (65-31), even 47 percent support among people who voted for Romney in 2012. Internal numbers show the president's disapproval rating as a huge ball-and-chain on Democratic candidates. 

Demographics: Only a narrow gender gap for Pryor and a virtual even split in the governor's race. Not good for the Democrats.

Voters love Mike Beebe still.

I happened to have been sampled by this poll. I guess more will come today on some questions about the 2016 presidential race.

BY THE WAY: Here's a New York Times article on why corporate money is flowing into races for attorney general through partisan umbrella groups. It's smelly. On both sides.





Tags: , , , , , , ,


Sign up for the Daily Update email
Favorite

Comments (10)

Showing 1-10 of 10

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-10 of 10

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

  • LR charter school application withdrawn for this year

    Friendship Aspire Academy has withdrawn its request to move up plans to open a charter school in Little Rock by a year to take advantage of a vacant building being remodeled by the Walton Family Foundation for another charter operator that withdrew.
    • Jun 20, 2018
  • Another prison death under investigation

    John Howell, 58, who was serving a life sentence for capital murder in Garland County, died shortly before 7 p.m. Tuesday after being found unresponsive on the floor of his barracks at the Cummins Unit, a spokesman said.
    • Jun 20, 2018
  • With Trump, of course, there's a catch

    So the heroic Donald Trump proposes a compromise to tearing families apart - jailing them indefinitely.
    • Jun 20, 2018
  • More »

Readers also liked…

  • Former Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel applauds Trump's EPA choice of climate change denier Scott Pruitt

    Dustin McDaniel gives the thumbs up to a man set to dismantle EPA regulations.
    • Dec 8, 2016
  • French Hill votes against disaster aid to Puerto Rico

    Republican U.S. Rep. French Hill alone among Arkansas's House delegation voted last week against a measure that provided $36.5 billion in disaster aid, a portion  for hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico as well as money for wildfire response and to support the flood insurance program.
    • Oct 14, 2017
  • Trump immigration protest at LR: Quick and fierce

    It was not even 24 hours ago that Sophia Said, director of the Interfaith Center; City Director Kathy Webb and others decided to organize a protest today of Donald Trump's executive order that has left people from Muslim countries languishing in airports or unable to come to the US at all — people with visas, green cards,a  post-doc graduate student en route to Harvard, Google employees abroad, families. I got the message today before noon; others didn't find out until it was going on. But however folks found out, they turned out in huge numbers, more than thousand men, women and children, on the grounds of the state Capitol to listen to speakers from all faiths and many countries.
    • Jan 29, 2017

Most Viewed

Most Recent Comments

Slideshows

 

© 2018 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation