Poll: Arkansas Supreme Court races close | Arkansas Blog

Saturday, February 6, 2016

Poll: Arkansas Supreme Court races close

Posted By on Sat, Feb 6, 2016 at 9:49 AM

The race for chief justice of the Arkansas Supreme is tied three weeks from the election, a new poll from Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College finds

Here's the breakdown:

32% Judge Dan Kemp
31% State Supreme Court Justice Courtney Goodson
37% Don’t Know

Meanwhile, Circuit Judge Shawn Womack holds a small lead over lawyer Clark Mason for an associate justice position with plurality of those polled undecided.

28% Judge Shawn Womack
22% Clark Mason
50% Don’t Know

Some analysis from Jay Barth, who constructed the poll:

Kemp and Goodson are in a statistical tie at this point in the race at 32% for Kemp and 31% for Goodson; more voters — 37% – are unclear in their ultimate vote. An examination of crosstabs suggests that there appears to be little variation in the vote across key demographic and political groups with two exceptions. There is a slight gender gap with Kemp leading among men and Goodson among women. Most interesting is a 10-point lead by Kemp in Goodson’s native 3rd congressional district, suggesting that voters there may be most troubled by aspects of Goodson’s personal or professional history; Goodson counters this with a lead in the First Congressional District (the eastern portion of Arkansas).

Circuit Judge Shawn Womack of Mountain Home does lead his opponent, Clark Mason of Little Rock, but half of the electorate has no preference at this point, meaning that this race is also up for grabs. Womack, a former Republican state Senator, does have a 13-point lead among those expecting to vote in the GOP primary (there is a tie vote among Democrats). Womack is also running strongly with voters who are 65 or above and with white voters (where he leads 30-21%).

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