Happy Super Tuesday | Arkansas Blog

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Happy Super Tuesday

Posted By on Tue, Mar 1, 2016 at 7:44 AM

Here we are. Eleven GOP contests and twelve Democratic contests today will go a long way toward determining each party's nominee for president. 

Arkansas is among those states. Polls are open 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Go vote! 

I'll recommend fivethirtyeight's guides to the Democratic and Republican Super Tuesday battles. 


On the GOP side, I predict that Trump gives Cruz a run for his money in Texas but falls short. Other than Texas, I predict Trump sweeps the field, or comes close to it (danger spots for Trump: Arkansas and Minnesota). I predict that Ted Cruz hangs on to Texas and gives Donald Trump a good fight in states like Arkansas, possibly snagging another win or two over Trump. I predict that Cruz will have a little bit better showing overall than Rubio — my guess is that Trump and Rubio bloodied each other this week, which could benefit Cruz, who mostly stayed out of it. I predict — no, I am certain — that I have no idea what will happen in Alaska. 

Arkansas? I've gone back and forth. Well, here's a stab: Trump 31 - Cruz 30 - Rubio 29. I would give each of the three candidates an equal shot to win and no result would surprise me. Arkansas is probably the hardest state to call today. Rubio clearly has a good chance to win, and my guess is that Gov. Asa Hutchinson's late endorsement helped significantly. While it wouldn't mean much in terms of delegate math, Rubio really needs to win a state if he is going to keep claiming to be the stealth frontrunner, and Arkansas may well be his best bet. 

On the Democratic side, I predict a near-sweep by Hillary Clinton outside of Bernie Sanders' home state of Vermont. I predict Sanders will keep it close in Oklahoma, Massachusetts, and Colorado, and pull off one win from among those states. Maybe two. I predict mammoth blowouts in most other contests for Clinton, giving her an insurmountable delegate lead by the end of the day.

In Arkansas, I predict Clinton beats the polling and takes at least 65 percent of the vote. 

The thought of making predictions in the judicial races is just too depressing, I'm afraid.  

I predict that my predictions will be wrong. What are yours? 

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