Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Your daily reminder: The race is close, but keep an eye on polling averages; wait for August

Posted By on Tue, Jul 26, 2016 at 8:20 AM



Yesterday featured a few polls with good news for Donald Trump, showing some evidence of a small bounce from the Republican National Convention (although in YouGov's poll, Clinton's lead actually grew a little on net head to head).

Today, NBC is out with a poll showing no bounce at all: 
Donald Trump received no significant bounce following the Republican National Convention, according to the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll. Hillary Clinton still leads Trump by a single point: 46 percent to 45 percent. These numbers are unchanged from last week.
I note this not to say that yesterday's polls were wrong or that the NBC poll is right, but merely as a reminder that we will be deluged with polls, each reported as breaking news. Don't drive yourself too crazy: Keep an eye on the polling averages rather than any one poll and remember that we won't have a clear picture of the shape of the race until August. The polls are not really predictive at all until after both conventions have been held. 

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