Arkansas by the numbers: The victories for Trump and marijuana | Arkansas Blog

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Arkansas by the numbers: The victories for Trump and marijuana

Posted By on Thu, Nov 10, 2016 at 2:48 PM

click to enlarge THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE: What the Clinton counties have in common is a high number of black voters.
  • THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE: What the Clinton counties have in common is a high number of black voters.
Hendrix College professor and Times columnist Jay Barth has put together an analysis of the election Tuesday on the demographics that brought Donald Trump and medical marijuana victories in Arkansas.

A familiar Republican coalition, plus the now famous less-educated white voter, gave Trump a big win. Marijuana is harder to pin down.

By Jay Barth

We are now at a point where we have solid numbers from across the state from Tuesday’s election and can begin to understand how Donald Trump won a surprisingly strong victory in Arkansas and, in the only close statewide vote of the day, how the state became the first Bible Belt state to create a medical marijuana program at the ballot box. Here’s a little of what we know from those numbers.

Unsurprisingly, Trump’s vote across the counties of the state was driven by four demographic forces according to a simple regression analysis of Tuesday’s results at the county level: education levels, the percentage of African-Americans, the percentage of Latinos, and income levels. As the percentage of a county’s residents with a bachelor’s degree or more goes up, Trump support went down controlling for other factors. In terms of race and ethnicity, as the percentage of a county’s residents who are African-Americans or Latinos increases, Trump support also decreases. On the other hand, all things being equal, the median household income in a county is positively connected with a county’s vote for Trump. The percentage of a county’s population that is a member of an evangelical denomination also approaches statistical significant with the percentage of evangelicals positively correlating with support for Trump. Thus, the Trump coalition in Arkansas looks much like the traditional GOP coalition of wealthier, whiter, and more religious voters. But, added to it are less-educated voters. All told, a powerful coalition.

While demography explains the Trump vote, it tells us much less about the patterns on Issue 6 — the medical marijuana amendment. Two demographic forces  —the percentage of the county’s citizens with a bachelor’s degree or advanced education and the percentage of the county’s populations who are African-American — are both positively related to support for the measure at the ballot box, according to a regression analysis of Tuesday’s results.

Also significant was the evangelical vote in a given county; the more adherents to evangelical churches in a county, the lower the percentage of the vote for medical marijuana. However, these variables — along with the median household income in the county and the percentage of Latino citizens in the county, neither of which are statistically significant—explain less than a quarter of the variation vote on Issue 6 across the state. This suggests other key forces beyond demographics were at work on the vote on the issue.
click to enlarge GREEN IS FOR POT: Patterns harder to discern on Issue 6, medical marijuana.
  • GREEN IS FOR POT: Patterns harder to discern on Issue 6, medical marijuana.

Tags: , , , , ,

From the ArkTimes store

Favorite

Comments (10)

Showing 1-10 of 10

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-10 of 10

Add a comment

More by Max Brantley

  • Woo. An open line

    The open line. Hogs, Trump, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
    • Sep 23, 2017
  • Trump launches attack on 'SOBs' of the NFL

    Donald Trump led a rally for Alabama Senate candidate Luther Strange Friday night and the resulting news coverage (if not in our local newspaper) is giving great attention for his rant against the NFL, including but not limited to players who have made political statements by taking a knee during the National Anthem.
    • Sep 23, 2017
  • Driver killed in crash with Maumelle officer

    Maumelle police report the death early this morning of a motorist who crashed head-on with a Maumelle police officer. The officer and two passengers in the other vehicle were injured.
    • Sep 23, 2017
  • More »

Readers also liked…

Most Shared

  • ASU to reap $3.69 million from estate of Jim and Wanda Lee Vaughn

    Arkansas State University announced today plans for spending an expected $3.69 million gift in the final distribution of the estate of Jim and Wanda Lee Vaughn, who died in 2013 and 2015 respectively.
  • Bad health care bill, again

    Wait! Postpone tax reform and everything else for a while longer because the Senate is going to try to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act one more time before September ends and while it can do it with the votes of only 50 senators.
  • Sex on campus

    Look, the Great Campus Rape Crisis was mainly hype all along. What Vice President Joe Biden described as an epidemic of sexual violence sweeping American college campuses in 2011 was vastly overstated.
  • The inadequate legacy of Brown

    LRSD continues to abdicate its responsibility to educate poor black students.

Most Viewed

  • Trump launches attack on 'SOBs' of the NFL

    Donald Trump led a rally for Alabama Senate candidate Luther Strange Friday night and the resulting news coverage (if not in our local newspaper) is giving great attention for his rant against the NFL, including but not limited to players who have made political statements by taking a knee during the National Anthem.
  • Woo. An open line

    The open line. Hogs, Trump, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Most Recent Comments

  • Re: Woo. An open line

    • University of North Carolina says No Thanks to White House invite. http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/co… SEPTEMBER 23, 2017…

    • on September 23, 2017
  • Re: Woo. An open line

    • The discussion was what if the Donald died and The response was that just Part…

    • on September 23, 2017
  • Re: Woo. An open line

    • Van - Harvey (the producer, not the hurricane) has indirectly "financed" yours truly through meeting…

    • on September 23, 2017

Blogroll

 

© 2017 Arkansas Times | 201 East Markham, Suite 200, Little Rock, AR 72201
Powered by Foundation