Tim Wu, writing for Slate.com doesn’t think so, but not for the reasons you believe. He blames the filmmakers for not making their films available on the web.
“Where does this leave the Web-film movement? Most obviously, films shorter than 15 minutes or so will most easily and naturally use the Web as a launch pad, while a Web revolution for feature-length film will be harder. Producers will have to, first of all, leggo their egos—get used to putting their entire films online, trusting that the exposure will be worth it. Second, Web distributors will have to rely far more heavily on expert filters (i.e., critics, programmers, scholars), paid or otherwise, than is usual for Web businesses obsessed with the doctrine of the long tail and its more-content-is-always-better mantra. Let’s face it: For someone to invest money and 90 minutes in a completely unknown film, they’ll need some decent signal—at least a hope—that the film will be worth the time. The Web-film-distribution firm that manages to somehow nail this filtration problem will become the YouTube of independent film.”
What effect will it have on the film festival, he asks. None. People still like to see other people.