The Moviegoer makes his predictions | The Moviegoer

Friday, February 23, 2007

The Moviegoer makes his predictions

Posted By on Fri, Feb 23, 2007 at 1:58 PM

Here they are in all their glory.  I've included my "Will Win" and my "Should Win" pick.  Have fun your selections and enjoy the show.  I'm hopeful to be blogging live during the ceremony so be sure to check back with my knee jerk reactions to the winners, the clothes, the speeches, the losers, the presenters, as well as the folks sitting next to me watching the show.

Best Picture:
Will Win:  "Babel"
Should Win:  "The Departed"

This is a tough call.  It's either going to "Babel," "The Departed" or "Little Miss Sunshine."  LMS is the least deserving of the 5 and I'd probably say this award belongs to "Letters from Iwo Jima," if it hadn't been released so damn late.

Best Director
Will Win:  Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Should Win:  Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

It's about time this guy wins this race.  He's been slighted by the Academy for too long.  First for "Raging Bull" then for "Goodfellas."  He wasn't even nominated for "Taxi Driver."  "The Aviator" and "Gangs of New York" didn't impress me enough to be pissed when he lost and I could rationalize his losses for "Age of Innocence" and "The Last Temptation of Christ."  But "The Departed" is a fine film and certainly wothy of the golden statue.  He'll win it.  Mark it down.

Best Lead Actor
Will Win:  Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Should Win:  Peter O'Toole, "Venus"

Give it to O'Toole already and no, this has nothing to do with Forest Whitaker's horrendous acceptance speeches.  I saw O'Toole in this film last week and he's sensational.  Is this a sentimental pick?  You bet it is. 

Best Lead Actress
Will Win:  Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Should Win:  Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

Open and shut.  Dame Helen wins.  I just hope she doesn't act like Julia Roberts.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win:  Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Should Win: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"

I liked Eddie Murphy a lot as James "Thunder" Early.  But Arkin was all around better.  I think Murphy will take it, but heroi smoking grandpa with denim and a fanny pack is damn funny.  I suppose if Murphy doesn't win, he'll buck the whole serious actor thing all together and keep doing dog shit like "Norbit."  Maybe I should be pulling for him after all.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win:  Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Should Win:  Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"

Jennifer Hudson is a real talent, but she's not acting talent - not yet.  She can sing with the best of them, but Cate Blanchett's performance was intoxicating.  Hudson deserves a do-over on American Idol, but not an Academy Award.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win:  "Little Miss Sunshine"
Should Win:  "Pan's Labyrinth"

"Pan's Labyrinth" was one of the best films this year.  Still, the Academy's going to give something to the yellow bus movie and this is it.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win:  "The Departed"
Should Win:  "The Departed"

Sharp, sharp, sharp, Mr. Monahan.  The year's edgiest script and the year's best.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win:  "The Lives of Others"
Should Win:  "Pan's Labyrinth"

Sadly, I have not seen "The Lives of Others," but internet buzz seems to be very much in it's favor.  It's an uneducated pick, but one I believe is accurate.  I loved "Pan's Labyrinth."  That's already out there.

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win:  "An Inconvenient Truth"
Should Win:  "An Inconvenient Truth"

I'm disappointed Gore won't be accepting the Oscar, but this documentary feature blew the doors of those who still believed that global warming was a phenomenon.  Kudos, and may a Nobel Prize follow.

Best Animated Feature
Will Win:  "Cars"
Should Win:  "Cars"

It's the only one of the three that I saw.  A certain short person under the age of 5 told me that it was her favorite, so I'm picking it.
And the technicals . . .
Make-up:  "Pan's Labyrinth"
Art Direction:  "Dreamgirls"
Cinematography:  "Children of Men"
Costume Design:  "Dreamgirls"
Film Editing:  "Babel"
Original Score:  "The Queen"
Original Song: "I Need to Wake Up" (from "An Inconvenient Truth")
Sound Editing:  "Letters from Iwo Jima"
Sound Mixing:  "Dreamgirls"
Visual Effects:  "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Animated Short: "The Little Match Girl"
Live Action Short: "West Bank Story"
Documentary Short: "Recycled Life"

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