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Friday, December 21, 2007

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Posted By on Fri, Dec 21, 2007 at 4:41 PM

OSCAR UPDATE V - December 23, 2007

The Screen Actors Guild and the Hollywood Foreign Press have weighed in with their nominations, as well as the Broadcast Film Critics Group and a slew of regional critics group.  What we seem to know at this point is that "No Country for Old Men" is on fire.  Critics love it, and by all accounts so does everyone else.  Ethan and Joel Coen are a lock for a Director's Guild nomination, which all but assures this fantastic film of a seat in the Oscar Best Picture table.

"Into the Wild," Sean Penn's film about wanderer Chris McCandless received a big boost from both the BFCA and the SAG.  Picking up nominations for Cast, Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress is huge for a film that was denied by the HFPA.  But we know the issues with the HFPA.  "Into the Wild" is very much in the thick of things.

On the acting side, Johnny Depp being snubbed by the SAG appeared to be a shocking omission.  I'm still inclined to believe AMPAS will give him a nod, but this is certainly a setback.  George Clooney ("Michael Clayton") and Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") got the final boost they needed for an Oscar run.  Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") and Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") are real factors in the race too.  Denzel Washington ("American Gangster") appears to be sinking by virtue of having to share significant screen time with Russell Crowe. 

The female lead seems to be a three horse race between Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose"), Julie Christie ("Away from Her") and Ellen Page ("Juno").  Laura Linney ("The Savages") is probably out of the running, leaving the final two spots to Angelina Jolie ("A Mighty Heart"), Amy Adams ("Enchanted") or Kiera Knightly ("Atonement").
Here are my Oscar locks as of 12/23/07 (new additions in italics):

Best Picture:
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director:
The Coen Bros. - "No Country for Old Men"
Julian Schnabel - "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"

Best Actor:
Daniel Day Lewis - "There Will Be Blood"
George Clooney - "Michael Clayton"

Best Actress:
Marion Cotillard - "La Vie En Rose"
Julie Christie - "Away from Her"
Ellen Page - "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor:
Javier Bardem - "No Country for Old Men"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook - "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson - "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett - "I'm Not There"
Amy Ryan - "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton - "Michael Clayton"

Removed:  Johnny Depp ("Sweeney Todd")
                 Denzel Washington ("American Gangster")

Additional resources:  Sultans of Bling, In Contention's "Main Charts," Guru's o' Gold, Oscar Igloo, and The LA Times "Buzzmeter." 

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