In looking over the data, a rosy picture is painted. Looking at the 3 House seats listed under "Likely Democrat", I looked back on previous elections in each respective District. There were no opponents in 2016, so going back to 2014, the Republican won each of those races and; therefore each seat has an incumbent Republican Legislator. In House District 41, the Republican received 59% of the vote, District 59 cast 55% of the vote to the Republican, and the Republican in House District 70 received 56% of the vote. I find it difficult to see how any of those districts could be classified as "Likely Democrat".
House seats 32 and 97 are not listed on the table. According to the count at the top of each column, "Toss Ups" and "Safe Democrat" columns are each missing one seat.
How many more examples of Gov. Beebe's lack of oversight will be uncovered in the coming months?
Re: “Will Arkansas join the red state revolt?”
As far as "Safe Democrat" seats are concerned, I looked at the table and a few seats immediately jumped out at me. House seats 25, 38, 65, and 84, supposedly safe Democrat seats, are all held by Republicans. In the 2016 cycle, the Republican in District 25 received 59% of the vote, House District 38 Republican received 52%. The last contested election in House District 65 and 84 were in 2014, with the Republicans receiving 52% and 58% respectively. Hard to agree with the author that those are safe Democrat seats.